New Zealand the in-form team heading into WWT20

So here is the up-to-date WCB IT20 Standings as the teams go into the WWT20 starting on 18^th March, including all games played up to 9^th March.

No I didn’t believe it either, but New Zealand really are top of the table AND they really are that many points ahead of England and Australia. I have checked lots of times. There are actually numerous reasons why they are top of the tree – Australia and England have not been too flash at T20 cricket of late (Australia have lost their last three T20 series and lost six of their last nine games); New Zealand have won eight of their last eleven games, including wins over England and Australia; and for some reason New Zealand played only 11 T20s between 1 March 2012 and 1 March 2014, which means they have only played 32 T20 games in the last four years compared with England’s 46 and Australia’s 44, so their recent form has a much greater impact on their current standing.

So does that make them favourites for the WWT20? Well the realistic answer is that they have as good a chance as Australia and England, the perennial favourites for these competitions, but also probably just as much chance as India, West Indies or South Africa. This really is the hardest WWT20 to call that there has ever been. Below I have previewed the teams’ chances, based on form, but there is one imponderable which I think might affect the tournament and who goes on to win it, and that is injury. 

For many of the top players the last few months have been jam-packed with cricket, as teams squeeze in ICCWC ODI fixtures, plus the almost obligatory three T20s. The Aussies have played an Ashes series against England, followed by a home series against India and no sooner were they back from New Zealand than they were on the plane to India. In between the entire squad has been involved in the WBBL, as have several of the England, New Zealand, West Indian and South African players. South Africa themselves have finished their latest series (against West Indies) today, which followed swiftly behind England's tour there too. Don't get me wrong I have no problem with plenty of cricket, but it does take it's toll. There will be many players carrying injuries into the tournament or having just recovered from injuries. I expect there may well be more during the tournament and if you lose a key player, then your fortunes can change rapidly. But aside from that caveat it looks like being a great tournament.

Group A
Australia, South Africa, New Zealand, Sri Lanka, Ireland

Australia expect to win. In fact most of the cricketing world expect Australia to win, but I just have this nagging doubt about this side and about the balance of their team. They did not perform that well against England last summer, then lost 2-1 to India at home and then by the same score to New Zealand away just a few days ago. They are struggling to nail down a decent opening partnership, they are relying far too much on Lanning and Perry to get runs and their bowling looks light. It has been a long haul for the Aussie girls since the English summer, including a full-on WBBL and I think this may be a tournament too far.

Antipodean rivals New Zealand will be looking to steal the Aussies’ crown.  After a couple of lacklustre years, including the failure to make the semi-finals of the last WWT20, New Zealand, under charismatic coach Haidee Tiffen, are once again punching above their weight on the international scene.  They seem to have a bit more self-belief now and if skipper Suzie Bates can keep her recent form going they will be tough to beat. But they do have bad days. And when they are bad they are very very bad. Can they string together the five or six wins on the trot that they need? They just might.

South Africa surprised everyone, including themselves, by making the semi-final of the 2014 WWT20. It was a great achievement and the fact that they froze in the semi-final against England was no surprise. Their recent series against England and the West Indies in South Africa shows that that cup run was no flash in the pan. Within their squad they have match-winners in van Niekerk, Lee, du Preez, Kapp and Luus, but their squad is thin. I expect them to win some big games, but possibly lose some they should win. If you want an outside bet though...

Sri Lanka and Ireland will not make it to the semi-finals, but Ireland could well win their first WWT20 match when the two sides meet. Sri Lanka are in a horrible slump of form at the moment. They have lost their last eight T20 games and in truth have never looked like winning any of them. Ireland won the WWT20 Qualifying Tournament in December, just pipping Bangladesh (their fellow qualifiers) in the final. They have great spirit in their team and it may be enough to get them a very precious two points.

Group B
England, West Indies, India, Pakistan and Bangladesh

Playing at home and coming off the back of a T20 series win against the Aussies in Australia, plus a drubbing of a rather forlorn Sri Lanka, India are on a high. Things could go one of two ways it seems for them – they could either live up to their own, and the whole of India’s expectations and win the thing, or they could crash and burn. They should get off to a good start as they play Bangladesh on the opening day of the tournament, but their clashes with England (22^nd March) and the West Indies (27^th March), will decide if they make it through to the semi-finals. If they can make it there then their young stars – Smriti Mandhana, Shika Pandey, Anuja Patil and Veda Krishnamurthy,amongst others, may prove fearless enough to get them into the final, although it may have to be at the expense of tournament favourites Australia, which may be a big ask.

England lack consistency over the last couple of years. This tournament has come too early for new Head Coach Mark Robinson to have had any great influence over the outcome for his new team, but a new positive attitude with the bat looks certain. The South Africa tour proved that sometimes it comes off and sometimes it does not. There is no doubt that England have players capable of winning T20 games – Taylor, Knight, Jones, Shrubsole, Brunt – but the question is can they? England look a bit light in the spin-bowling department, with Knight now Charlotte Edwards go-to spin bowler it seems. If England make it out of the group then they are in with a shout.

The West Indies have a remarkably poor record in T20s over the last couple of years. They have only won seven out of the 25 they have played in that time. They have also managed to tie three of those games, which is quite a feat. They have class in Stafanie Taylor, and Deandra Dottin seems to be coming back into some sort of form after a couple of years in the wilderness following her ban, but these two need some back-up. They are a team capable of winning, but they lack a cutting edge.

Pakistan have had a torrid run into the tournament due to security issues in India. At the time of writing they have still yet to get to India, and it has been confirmed they will miss their first warm-up game with New Zealand scheduled for Thursday, and maybe even the warm-up against South Africa on Saturday. Their current T20 form is not that bad and they are a potential banana skin for the big three, but with little or no practice before the tournament they are clearly at a huge disadvantage.

Bangladesh have only beaten Ireland and Sri Lanka in their last 13 games, and lost narrowly to Ireland in the WWT20 Qualifier final. They should not trouble the big boys, but will be keen to get one over on Pakistan if they can.

So the warm-up games start tomorrow and the tournament itself kicks off on next Tuesday (15th March). Some of the group games are being televised as will be the semi-finals and the final. If the tournament can step out of the huge shadow of the men's tournament into the media spotlight, then it should be a great event.

MD
9/III/16